New kinetic energy of consumption continues to be released (new economic direction·What does 70 years of data show)

The huge market space has become the most reliable guarantee for the development of my country's consumer market and will bring continuous vitality to economic development

It is necessary to further deepen the supply-side structural reform, guide enterprises to promote supply innovation based on market demand, and cultivate more mature consumer market segments

From bicycles, sewing machines, watches, radios, etc." "Three turns and one ring", to mobile phones, computers, smart furniture; from ticket supply to online shopping and mobile payment; from focusing on quantitative satisfaction to pursuing quality improvement... The National Bureau of Statistics recently released 70-year development data of my country's consumer market. my country's consumption field has undergone historic changes, market-oriented reforms have achieved remarkable results, circulation methods have been innovative and developed, the decisive role of the market in resource allocation has gradually emerged, and consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth.

Consumption is the final demand. It is not only the ultimate goal and driving force of production, but also the direct reflection of people’s need for a better life. What are the new changes in my country’s residents’ consumption? What are the future development trends? The reporter interviewed relevant experts.

Consumption has become the "ballast stone" for economic stability

In 1952, the total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 150 billion yuan in 1978, jumped to a new level of 20 trillion yuan in 2012, and hit a new high in 2018, reaching 38 trillion yuan. From 1952 to 2018, total retail sales of consumer goods grew at an average annual rate of 11.6%. Over the past 70 years, we have witnessed the great leap forward in our country’s consumer market.

——Demand is strong, purchases and sales are booming, and total consumption continues to expand. At the end of 2018, the average number of TV sets, washing machines and refrigerators owned by every 100 households in my country's urban areas was 121.3, 97.7 and 100.9 respectively, while in 1981 they were only 0.6, 6.3 and 0.2 respectively.

——Supply is increasing, entities are active, and the market structure is expanding. In 2018, there were more than 100 million market entities nationwide, with an average of 18,400 new companies established every day; the number of companies per 1,000 people increased from 11.4 in 2013 before the reform of the commercial system to 23.9 now, more than doubling.

“Both supply and demand in the consumer market are booming thanks to the in-depth advancement of reform and opening up.” Dong Chao, director of the Institute of Circulation and Consumption of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, believes that my country takes market-oriented reform as its basic orientation and adopts a gradual and in line with national conditions reform methods in administrative management systems, ownership systems, commodity purchase and sales policies, and enterprise operating mechanisms. It has basically realized the market pricing mechanism and gradually formed a business landscape with diversified entities, diverse methods, and open competition, which has provided strong support for the rapid development of the consumer market.

Jing Linbo, president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Evaluation, said that internal reforms to establish a market economic system and external opening to attract foreign-invested enterprises to enter China not only enrich the supply of the domestic consumer market, but also introduce competition, adding vitality to the high-quality development of the consumer market.

“As the consumer market continues to grow rapidly, the role of domestic consumption in driving economic growth continues to increase.” China Council for the Promotion of International Trade Research InstituteZhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department, said that in 2018, the contribution rate of final consumer spending to GDP growth reached 76.2%. Consumption has been the first driving force of economic growth for five consecutive years and has become the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" to maintain the smooth operation of the economy.

There is still room for supply-side quality improvement

“The consumer market has transformed from a ‘seller’s market’ to a ‘buyer’s market’, and the upgrading of demand has driven the improvement of supply quality.” Jing Linbo said that in recent years, supply-side structural reforms have continued to make efforts, and my country’s consumption structure has been continuously optimized to promote the balance between supply and demand.

From the perspective of commodity consumption, the Engel coefficient of national residents in 2018 was 28.4%, a decrease of 35.5 percentage points from 1978. Dong Chao believes that with the steady increase in residents' income levels and changes in consumption concepts, residents' consumption has shifted from focusing on quantitative satisfaction to pursuing quality improvement, and quality consumption, smart product consumption, and green consumption have become hot spots.

From the perspective of service consumption, the overall scale of the service consumption market continues to expand, and the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry in GDP increased from about 20% in 1980 to 52.2% in 2018. With the steady improvement of residents' living standards and the great progress of the market supply side, consumption hot spots have shifted from physical consumption that meets the people's material needs to service consumption that reflects people's needs for a better life. Residents' service consumption accounts for an increasing proportion of total consumption.

From the perspective of coordinated development between urban and rural areas, the urban-rural structure continues to improve, and regional development shifts to an overall balance. Jing Linbo said that the implementation of the "Ten Thousand Villages and Thousands of Townships Market Project" and the "Double Hundred Market Project" as well as the expansion of e-commerce and other sales channels into rural areas have improved rural circulation conditions and consumption environment. With the continuous advancement of development strategies such as the development of the western region, the revitalization of the old industrial bases in the Northeast, and the rise of central China, the development speed and structure of the consumer markets in different regions have also undergone major changes.

“Although my country has made remarkable achievements in expanding the scale of consumption and improving the consumption structure, there are still many shortcomings and bottlenecks that restrict the expansion and upgrading of consumption.” Dong Chao said that the supply of high-quality services in the fields of housekeeping, elderly care, early childhood education, tourism, medical care, education and other fields is insufficient. The competitiveness of local brands that meet mid-to-high-end consumption is weak, and the construction of quality and standard systems still lags behind the needs of improving consumption and expanding capacity.

Zhao Ping believes that to achieve a higher level of supply and demand balance, we must further deepen the supply-side structural reform, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, guide enterprises to promote supply innovation based on market demand, cultivate more mature consumer market segments, and stimulate the endogenous motivation of enterprise innovation.

Favorable factors to promote consumption are accumulating

Currently, the situation at home and abroad has changed profoundly. Standing at a new high point in consumption development in the past 70 years, can my country's consumption continue to grow steadily? Experts said that our country has a population of nearly 1.4 billion and the world's largest middle-income group. The huge market space has become the most reliable guarantee for the development of our country's consumer market and will bring continuous vitality to economic development.

“The large market base has laid the foundation for the long-term development of my country’s consumption. However, compared with the same period of per capita income in developed countries, the consumption rate, which represents the proportion of final consumption in GDP, is still significantly lower.” Dong Chao believes that in addition to strengthening the supply side, on the demand side, residents must be able to consume, willing to consume, and dare to consume.

my country has introduced a series of policies and measures to stabilize and promote consumption. The relevant person in charge of the National Bureau of Statistics said that raising the minimum wage standard, implementing tax cuts and fee reductions and personal income tax deduction policies will help improve residents’ spending power; improving public services such as education, medical care, and elderly careWe will strengthen the people's livelihood security network, which will help eliminate residents' worries about consumption; purify the market environment and accelerate the construction of quality standards and credit systems, which will help increase residents' willingness to consume. With the implementation of these policies, residents' consumption demand is expected to be further released.

The emergence of new technologies and new business formats makes consumption more convenient. Jing Linbo said that at the end of 2018, the number of Internet users in my country exceeded 800 million, and the Internet penetration rate reached 59.6%. With the advancement of Internet technology and the expansion of network coverage, mobile payment and online shopping are booming, consumption scenarios continue to expand, and consumption becomes within reach.

Over the past 70 years, the scale of my country's consumer market has continued to expand, and the consumption structure has been transformed and upgraded, playing an important role in meeting the people's needs for a better life. Zhao Ping believes that my country has entered an important historical stage of consumption upgrading. As demand leadership and supply-side structural reform promote each other, new consumption momentum continues to be released, and the fundamental role of consumption in economic development will become more stable.